{"id":14354,"date":"2026-10-20T15:52:43","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T15:52:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/?p=13825"},"modified":"2026-10-29T19:01:06","modified_gmt":"2026-10-29T19:01:06","slug":"the-cftc-wants-to-give-prediction-markets-a-rulebook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/?p=14354","title":{"rendered":"The CFTC Wants to Give Prediction Markets a Rulebook"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"wp-post\" data-elementor-id=\"14354\" class=\"elementor elementor-14354\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-a6de688 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"a6de688\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-46380fad\" data-id=\"46380fad\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-f5fea57 elementor-widget elementor-widget-text-editor\" data-id=\"f5fea57\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-widget_type=\"text-editor.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\tJohn O\u2019Connell was recently published in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/analysis\/the-cftc-wants-to-give-prediction-markets-a-rulebook-200689593\">Investing.com<\/a> on the CFTC\u2019s June 2026 proposal to finally give prediction markets a rulebook. For sixteen years the Commission\u2019s power to block event contracts ran on guesswork, with no defined process or deadline, and the proposed rule replaces that with a three-step test and a real review clock that stops client positions sitting in regulatory limbo. The section worth reading twice is gaming, which gets a sports carve-out: aggregate outcomes like final scores could clear the test, while contracts on player injuries or officiating calls likely fail, and macro contracts on CPI, rates, or elections stay outside review entirely. This turns prediction markets from a client-behavior question into a documentation one, so firms that build disclosure language around these categories now will be ahead of those retrofitting suitability docs next year.\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/section>\r\n\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-c38c067 elementor-section-boxed elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default\" data-id=\"c38c067\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-default\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-258a86e\" data-id=\"258a86e\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\r\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-fd89864 e-transform elementor-widget elementor-widget-porto_button\" data-id=\"fd89864\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;_transform_translateX_effect&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:280,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_translateX_effect_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_translateX_effect_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_translateY_effect&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_translateY_effect_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;_transform_translateY_effect_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"porto_button.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<a class=\"btn btn-xl btn-primary\" href=\"https:\/\/www.investing.com\/analysis\/the-cftc-wants-to-give-prediction-markets-a-rulebook-200689593\"><span >Read the Full Article Here<\/span><\/a>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/section>\r\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>John O\u2019Connell was recently published in Investing.com on the CFTC\u2019s June 2026 proposal to finally give prediction markets a rulebook. For sixteen years the Commission\u2019s power to block event contracts ran on guesswork, with no defined process or deadline, and the proposed rule replaces that with a three-step test and a real review clock that [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":14374,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[67],"tags":[135],"class_list":["post-14354","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-article","tag-prediction-markets"],"acf":[],"featured_image_src":{"landsacpe":["https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/voyager\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-Peaks-Perspective-Thumbnail33-1140x445.png",1140,445,true],"list":["https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/voyager\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-Peaks-Perspective-Thumbnail33-463x348.png",463,348,true],"medium":["https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/voyager\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-Peaks-Perspective-Thumbnail33-300x236.png",300,236,true],"full":["https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/voyager\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-Peaks-Perspective-Thumbnail33.png",2560,2013,false]},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The CFTC Wants to Give Prediction Markets a Rulebook | The Oasis Group<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/?p=14354\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The CFTC Wants to Give Prediction Markets a Rulebook | The Oasis Group\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"John O\u2019Connell was recently published in Investing.com on the CFTC\u2019s June 2026 proposal to finally give prediction markets a rulebook. For sixteen years the Commission\u2019s power to block event contracts ran on guesswork, with no defined process or deadline, and the proposed rule replaces that with a three-step test and a real review clock that [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/?p=14354\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Oasis Group\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/theoasisgrp\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2026-10-20T15:52:43+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2026-10-29T19:01:06+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/theoasisgrp.com\/voyager\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/10\/Copy-of-Peaks-Perspective-Thumbnail33-1024x805.png\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1024\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"805\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/png\" \/>\n<meta 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