The CFTC Wants to Give Prediction Markets a Rulebook

John O’Connell was recently published in Investing.com on the CFTC’s June 2026 proposal to finally give prediction markets a rulebook. For sixteen years the Commission’s power to block event contracts ran on guesswork, with no defined process or deadline, and the proposed rule replaces that with a three-step test and a real review clock that stops client positions sitting in regulatory limbo. The section worth reading twice is gaming, which gets a sports carve-out: aggregate outcomes like final scores could clear the test, while contracts on player injuries or officiating calls likely fail, and macro contracts on CPI, rates, or elections stay outside review entirely. This turns prediction markets from a client-behavior question into a documentation one, so firms that build disclosure language around these categories now will be ahead of those retrofitting suitability docs next year.